So there are some very similar themes to this week's data watch. Regular readers of the blog will have noticed a keen focus on the interaction and evolution of inflation and growth on the prospects of global monetary normalisation. This week, all three - growth, inflation and that monetary policy debate will be in full focus.

So we start the week with the global PMI data and the preliminary or flash readings for February. Notably, we would have to wait until the following week for the US ISM data, but this is one indicator that we can view as a critical factor for markets in 2022. The strength of demand growth, particularly with respect to the squeeze on consumer spending that we're seeing from price rises, notably energy costs and the imminent, if globally differentiated prospect of rate hikes is a very important point. Now, the PMI data showed, in the most part benefit from some Omicron reopening rebound and potentially some productivity expansion from the easing of supply chain constraints in some areas. Growth - a core focus for us, especially the growth differentials that we see widening in 2022 in conjunction with divergent sensitivities to monetary tightening. Secondly, inflation. Inflation remains a core driver of volatility and uncertainty across a number of financial markets at the moment, especially if we remove the Russia-Ukraine concerns, which we're not going to touch on today. Next week, we get PCE data from the US, which is expected to continue to highlight the acute price pressures in the near term. Now, the core PCE deflator is expected to tick about five percent, keeping markets and the Fed uncomfortable with the potential implications and possible policy trade offs. We also get a raft of price data in emerging markets where the respective monetary cycles are significantly closer to the end than the developed markets but as yet, peak inflation remains elusive.

As we discussed in this week's blog, we're increasingly of the opinion that the direction of travel or the second derivative of the inflation trajectory is very significant both for policymakers and for market sentiment and in conjunction with the implications for growth, we also see this as providing further global differentiation. Then finally, these two factors ultimately feed into a monetary policy response. Wednesday we get the RBNZ they are expected to hike a further 25 basis points. This is the third consecutive hike bringing the overnight cash rate to one percent. This is also the pre-pandemic level, incidentally. Elsewhere, the narrative from the global central bankers will be key in shaping expectations for the rest of 2022. In the UK, Ramsden gives a speech and Bailey, Broadbent, Haskell and Tenreyro give parliamentary testimony. We'll see if the Bank of England retains its resolve, its resolute desire, if you will, to address the structural supply shift with higher UK rates. In Europe this week, we've had the ECB chief economist, its vice president, as well as the French and Spanish central bank representatives to the governing council express a more cautious approach to normalisation. At the other end of the dovish hawkish spectrum the Bundesbank and Estonian central banks, also emphasising the need for gradual, growth conscious policy in its evolution. Gradual is now likely the new ECB buzzword not compatible, we think, with two 25 basis point hikes in 2022. In the US, the pressure is likely maintained. They do have much higher inflation and that is driven by a much higher demand growth. The question now is how front loaded policy is likely to be in light of a more sensitive risk backdrop, and again, for us, though, that's an area of wider differentiation going forward.