of the week ahead

Transcript

Aiste Niuniavaite

Welcome to "The Long & Short of the Week Ahead", a production of Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macro-economic themes of the week ahead and has been recorded for professional investors.

My name is Aiste, Sales and Marketing Executive for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and I'm joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager.

Welcome back, Neil. It's great to have you here with us again.

Neil Staines

Thank you very much Aiste. It's great to be here.

Aiste Niuniavaite

So it looks like another busy week for us. What have you got your eye on?

Neil Staines

Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks very much. Aiste. After another complex week for financial markets with the inflation growth trade-off squarely front and centre of the macro debate, most notably in the UK. A topic that we discuss in much more detail in this week's blog. The data calendar for next week is fairly light on top tier global economic releases, but there are a couple of things we'll be watching closely, nonetheless.

Firstly, after the release of the PMI data for Europe at the end of this week, showing some disappointing slowing activity across the region but notably further fragility in German manufacturing and a surprise drop in French services PMIs. Next week reaches its conclusion with the release of the Eurozone for Flash CPI estimate for June. Now, expectations are for a tick higher in the core CPI measure to 5.4% year on year. In itself, this is likely enough to confirm or deliver upon the governing council's forward guidance of 25 basis point hike in July. Either way, the inflation release next week will focus markets attention on the inflation growth dynamic and likely upon the prospect or probability of the ECB tightening cycle, continuing beyond the summer recess. Amid what appears to be a deepening global downturn.

Then secondly, the data focus will spread globally next week with some clear focal points. Australian CPI to start the week will focus markets attention on the length of the post pause hiking cycle that's likely in Australia. German IFO for June will be keenly watched for signs of a pulse in German industry after a very disappointing Flash PMI data this week. China PMI data will be closely watched for signs of economic stabilization, albeit at rates of growth that are significantly higher than developed markets at the current juncture, especially against the backdrop of disappointed stimulus expectations in China. Now to close the week US PCE data will be key for still elevated market rate hike expectations in the US. And by still high global correlation. To close the week US PCE data will be key for still elevated market rate hike expectations in the US and by still high global correlations at the DM rate curves in general.

Then finally next week starts with the annual ECB Forum on Central banking in Sintra. Now, earlier this year, I was lucky enough to play golf in the stunning Sintra Mountains. This year's delegation, global central bankers likely face significantly narrower fairways, unpredictable winds, and deeper bunkers than I may have in a metaphorical sense of course. At a very complicated growth in the inflation juncture in the global economy. The testimony and debate of global central bankers will be very keenly watched. The closing panel with Powell, Ueda, Bailey and Lagarde, that will be a very important barometer of monetary sentiment from key developed market central bankers in both absolute and relative terms and is critical viewing for the global macro participants.

Aiste Niuniavaite

Thank you very much, Neil. Now for the weekend, it looks like it's a bit quieter, but lovely weather for us.

Neil Staines

Thanks very much. There is a comparatively very light sporting calendar this weekend. The culmination of European Team Championship athletics action from the Women's International Cricket Test, England versus Australia. Ahead of a very exciting second Ashes test late next week, and the tennis from Queens head of a fast approaching Wimbledon. But for me this weekend, I've finally found a barbecue and I look forward to listening to some highlights from this year's Glastonbury Festival. Knowing full well I will not be sleeping in a tent in a field to do so. Elton John and Blondie, the acts that caught my eye and likely give away my age but must look forward to on a slightly more relaxing weekend.

Aiste Niuniavaite

Thank you very much, Neil. A lovely weekend indeed. Thank you Neil, for joining us and sharing your thoughts on the week ahead. We look forward to catching up with you again next week.

Thank you for joining us for "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead". Further insights are available on our website eurizonsljcapital.com/insights. We look forward to you joining us again next week for more insights into macro-economic events and "The Long and Short of the Week Ahead".

Disclosure

This communication is issued by Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited (“ESLJ”), a private limited company registered in England (company number: 09775525) having its registered office at 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA, United Kingdom. ESLJ is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 736926). This communication is treated as a marketing communication intended for professional investors only and is provided only for information purposes. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, with respect to any investment strategy or financial instruments, or the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this communication, save to the extent agreed in any written contract entered into between ESLJ and the recipient, and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. Views are accurate as at the time of publication. Opinions expressed by individuals are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of ESLJ or any of its affiliates. The value of any investment may change and an investor may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This communication may not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose. It may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this communication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

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