Developed Markets
Disinflation: A volatile Journey?
Last week, we discussed the broader similarities and evolutions of DM central bank policy narratives. We argued that, while the vast majority of the most recent DM central bank communications were dovish, the reaction function to continued disinflation remains one of caution
Read MoreInflation: Upside Risks or Flying Without Wings?
Perhaps the defining sentence in the Fed statement was, “The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained…
Read MorePassive Tightening and the Cost of Inactivity?
Last week, we discussed the partial reversal (or pull back) in some of the dominant trends of November and December (dominated by higher rate cut pricing and duration outperformance).
Read MoreCentral Bank Optionality: All About the Data?
Last week, we discussed the impending central bank decisions – the final monetary guidance for 2023 – set against the rapidly evolving market sentiment from a macroeconomic perspective.
Read MoreCentral Banks: The Thrill of the (Inflation) Fight?
Last week, we discussed the impending central bank decisions – the final monetary guidance for 2023 – set against the rapidly evolving market sentiment from a macroeconomic perspective.
Read MoreCentral Banks Centre Stage
Last week, we discussed the ongoing growth moderation and global disinflation themes that we see continuing …
Read MorePutting the Mince Pies on Hold?
Last week, we discussed what we saw as a continued evolution of the dominant themes that have been present for a number of weeks…
Read More2024: Time for Some New Kids on the FX Block?
Last week, we discussed the recent market reaction to the recent CPI miss in the US (from the October data) and our suggestion that this was an example of our rising view that the burden of proof has switched from the absence of slower growth…
Read MoreStill Plenty to Play for in 2023?
Last week, we discussed what we saw as a continuation of the recent theme of completion of the global monetary tightening cycle…
Read MoreWill Slowing Growth Knock the US off its Narrow Path?
Last week, we discussed the most recent iteration of US monetary policy following the November FOMC where they left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected.
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