Developed Markets

Last week, we questioned the clear market consensus view of US exceptionalism – at least in terms of the recent market desire to extrapolate (significant) US growth outperformance.

Last week, we discussed the concept of confidence, confidence that inflation is returning to target in the context of the restrictiveness of current monetary policy settings…

With the path of monetary policy dependent on confidence – confidence that inflation is returning to target – we continue to argue that this is by default an asymmetric relationship…

Last week, we discussed the most recent data and commentary driving the DM monetary policy considerations and by extension the dominant macroeconomic sentiment and positioning – concentrated on the ECB and the Fed ahead of this week’s events.

In our last piece, before the Easter holiday period, we discussed the recent monetary evolution of a range of DM central banks and the critical nature of the Fed narrative against the noise and uncertainty about the interpolation or extrapolation of US growth and inflation trends.

Last week, we discussed our continued view that it is the growth/inflation tradeoff that remains the critical piece of the current macro puzzle and also…

Last week, we discussed the main events in the global macroeconomic space across fiscal (the UK Budget), monetary (the ECB meeting) and an update on the growth / inflation trade off in the US (the February employment report, or NFP).

Last week, we took a look into the week ahead focussing on three key events: (i) the UK Budget and by extension the fiscal trajectory, (ii) the European inflation update and by extension the

This week has been very quiet (outside of the volatility spike in crypto), but next week, as data and events are much more abundant we expect volatility and activity to pick up anew.

Last week, we discussed the upside surprise to the January inflation report in the US. We argued that, while the commentary following the release struck a hawkish tone, we are much more inclined