Currencies
FT: Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar?
Amid the market’s abrupt turn away from the “American Exceptionalism” narrative, Stephen Jen delivers a sharp and timely perspective on the dollar’s path.
Read MoreWSJ: The dollar and the bond market’s ominous message for Trump
I think this editorial by Greg Ip underscores the biggest question mark in the market, besides the policy surprises: why US are bond yields not lower?
Read MoreThe Long-Awaited Dollar Correction Finally Commencing
We ceased to be dollar-positive some two years ago and stressed our bearish view on the dollar throughout H2 2024.
Read MoreSome thoughts on the US trade tariffs announced last night
There are three phases in this Trade War: (1) the US launches its ‘attack’, or retaliation for a history of unfair terms of trade; (2)…
Read MoreMy thoughts on currencies
In this wide-ranging note, Stephen Jen offers a two-layered view of the current macro landscape: one focused on the underlying…
Read MoreA ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?
A ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ on September 22, 2025?: Reached on September 22, 1985, the Plaza Accord was an agreement by the G5 countries to coordinate….
Read MoreCentral Banks: The Thrill of the (Inflation) Fight?
Last week, we discussed the impending central bank decisions – the final monetary guidance for 2023 – set against the rapidly evolving market sentiment from a macroeconomic perspective.
Read MoreCentral Banks Centre Stage
Last week, we discussed the ongoing growth moderation and global disinflation themes that we see continuing …
Read MorePutting the Mince Pies on Hold?
Last week, we discussed what we saw as a continued evolution of the dominant themes that have been present for a number of weeks…
Read More2024: Time for Some New Kids on the FX Block?
Last week, we discussed the recent market reaction to the recent CPI miss in the US (from the October data) and our suggestion that this was an example of our rising view that the burden of proof has switched from the absence of slower growth…
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